Monday, July 29, 2024

2024 Olympic Marathon Preview & Medal Picks

Article by Ben David

2024 Olympic Marathon Preview


The cynic will say that the Olympics have become a cesspool of corporate greed, corruption and misguided internal politics. They will say that they lost any semblance of purity decades ago and exist in 2024 only so that the rich get richer and so-called First World countries can pat themselves on the back as, every four years, they can appease developing nations with desperately limited resources and distant shots at medalling. They cynic will bemoan the ‘haves’ in the face of the ‘have nots’ who pretend that Olympic success is tethered to work ethic, grit and talent, rather than unlimited resources, abounding access to technology and the best coaches on the planet. They will say further that the human community is no more; we are divided, hiding behind our screens and fully unable to connect across geographic or ethnic lines. 

Luckily, I’m no cynic. 

I love the Olympics. Especially in today’s money-hungry world, where excess is the law of the land and corporate money is the god of choice. The Olympics, in spite of it all, speak to togetherness, tradition and - dare I say - the unwavering might of the human spirit. The Games bring us back to our humanity and its most fundamental: running, jumping, throwing, swimming, trying, trying again and giving ourselves fully in the process. The Olympic marathon is perhaps the quintessential event on the schedule. Put on your (carbon-plated) shoes and race 26.2 miles through the summer heat. First one to the line wins. It is simple and unfettered, as primal as anything. 


It is no secret that the marathon distance that we know today is itself a product of the Olympic Games. In 1908, in order to accommodate British royalty, the finish line was moved to 26 miles, 385 yards. This had the runners finish beneath the royal box, which was customary. Marathoners falling apart in the later stages of their race have cursed that consequential decision ever since. 


Spyridon Louis won the very first Olympic marathon in 1896, crossing the line in 2:58 (a time that would have him finish dead last in today’s race). The women’s marathon was only introduced to the Olympics in 1984, when American Joan Benoit (Samuelson) broke the tape in Los Angeles in 2:24.


Back to 2024… The International Olympic Committee has sought to limit the size of the field by implementing harsher standards: 2:08:10 for the men, 2:26:50 for the women. The field size is also affected by one’s international ranking. On the men’s side, just shy of 100 runners are scheduled to toe the start line. For the women, there are just over 100 planned starters. 


As countries can have up to three marathoners (assuming they fit all the criteria), many of the usual suspects are well-represented: Kenya, Ethiopia, Japan, Great Britain, France, the United States, Italy, Uganda and Germany. A plethora of countries (many with far fewer resources than some of the western powerhouses) will have a single runner on the starting line, a tribute to their resolve, dedication and ability no doubt. 

So who’s gonna win? 


The Women


International Field

It goes without saying that the field is loaded with talent. On the starting line will be numerous past winners of World Marathon Majors and the defending gold medalist, Peres Jepchirchir of Kenya. Peres ran a 2:27 to win definitively on a brutally hot day in Sapporo in the summer of 2021. She’s won in Valencia, Prague and NYC. In London this past spring she ran an astonishing 2:16:16 to take the women’s-only marathon world record. She is - to me - the favorite to take the win. I find it hard to bet against her. 


If I WERE to bet against her, it would be with Hellen Obiri, who has won everything in sight of late, including Boston in 2023, NYC in 2023, then Boston again this past spring. She is coached by American legend, Dathan Ritzenhein, who will surely have her ready to go.


They will be joined by countrywoman, Brigid Kosgei, who claimed the silver in Japan. Kosgei ran a mind-boggling 2:14:04 to take the win in Chicago in 2019. Can she take down her teammates? Will it be a Kenyan sweep?


Eunice Chumba of Bahrain will also be there; she finished seventh at the last Olympics and holds a PR of 2:30. She will be joined by her compatriot, Rose Chelimo. These five - along with the Ethiopians - will almost certainly be vying for the win. 


Another contender will be Lonah Saltpeter Chemtai of Israel. Chemtai came to Israel as the nanny of the Kenyan ambassador and only began running in recent years. She ran 2:17 in Tokyo in 2020 and 2:18 in Nagoya in 2023. She was in contention until late in the race at the last Olympics until menstrual cramps sidelined her. She will be one to watch. 


The always-strong Ethiopian contingent includes Gotyom Gebreslase, who ran 2:18:11 to win the marathon at the World Championships in Eugene in the summer of 2022. Alemu Megertu, also of Ethiopia, ran 2:16:34 to place fourth in London this spring. Her compatriot, Tigst Assefa, ran 2:16:23 to place second in London. Surely one of these three will be on the medal stand when all is said and done. Right? Maybe? 


A final woman to keep an eye on will be Sifan Hassan of the Netherlands. Born in Ethiopia, her range is staggering. In Tokyo she medaled in the 1500, 5K and 10K. At these Olympics she intends to run the 5K, 10K and marathon. Her personal best of 2:13:44 makes her the second fastest female marathoner ever. Will she have enough left in her legs to make the podium? 

If history is any indicator, following a relatively measured start, the Kenyans and Ethiopians will be left to battle late in the race once the others have fallen away. I wouldn’t predict anything else to happen in Paris on the morning of August 11. 


We’ll also keep an eye of course on the battle of the shoes. For the Nike athletes, will we see more Alphafly or Vaporfly? For Adidas, will it be the EVO 1 or the Adios Pro 3? What will the ASICS shoe of choice be?


The American Women


The winner of the Olympic Trials in Orlando was the debutante, Fiona O’Keefe. In the style of Molly Seidel four years earlier, she punched her ticket to the Olympics in her inaugural attempt at the distance. O’Keefe beat a loaded field of veterans as she stormed to the finish in a trials record 2:22:10. 


She was followed by Emily Sisson, whose resume contains a previous Olympic appearance in the 10,000 in Tokyo. She ran 2:18 in Chicago in 2022. 


The third American on the starting line will be Dakota Lindwurm of Minnesota who fought her way to third place at the trials to earn her spot on the team. 


O’Keefe and Lindwurm are Puma athletes. They gave us our first look at the Deviate Nitro Elite 3 in Orlando. Sisson is a New Balance athlete. We’ll wait to see which shoe she goes with in Paris: Pacer V2, FuelCell Elite V4, something else?). 


It is a solid team and they will no doubt be prepared to do battle.  The Americans best hopes likely lie in running conservatively and picking off fading runners late in the race. It is likely that Sisson would have the merit and gall to go with the leaders. She could therefore pull off what Seidel did at the last games, surprising the world in grabbing a spot on the podium. 


My medal picks:

Obiri

Jepchirchir

Chemtai


The Men


International Field

The Men’s Marathon has one primary race-within-the-race that the entire running world will be watching: Kenenisa Bekele of Ethiopia versus Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya. These two lions have done all there is to do in the sport: won medals, claimed world records, represented their respective countries on the biggest of stages. It’s a rivalry two decades old at this point and this race - almost certainly - will be their final head-to-head match up. The Ethiopian legend against the Kenyan hero. They’ve both won cross country titles, world marathon majors and run sub 2:02 marathons. Kipchoge has had more success in the marathon; though Bekele continues to put up highly impressive results, as he did when he finished second in London this past spring. 



Incidentally, their first major matchup occurred in Paris almost exactly twenty years ago, when Kipchoge narrowly beat Bekele in the 2003 world championships 5,000. Bekele would best Kipchoge in the 5,000 at the next two Olympic Games, first in Athens, then in Beijing in 2008. Kipchoge has won the marathon at the last two Olympics. Can he do it again at age 39? Will Bekele, age 41, go out on top? It’s impossible to say. I’ve learned to never bet against Kipchoge, though two of his last three marathons (Boston and Tokyo) were both busts (at least by his standards). If Kipchoge is “on,” I will always pick him. 


They will be joined on the starting line by Bekele’s countryman, Adidas athlete, Tamirat Tola, who won the world championships marathon in Eugene in 2:05 two summers ago. He ran 2:03 in Amsterdam in 2021 and again in Valencia in 2022. He won the NYC Marathon this past fall in 2:04:58.


Kenyans Benson Kipruto and Timothy Kiplagat will no doubt be in the mix until late in the race, as will Ugandan Victor Kiplangat. The Eritreans and Israelis also come in with very strong delegations. Maru Teferi of Israel was second at the world championships marathon last summer in Budapest. He came to Israel from Ethiopia at the age of 14 and owns a personal best of 2:06:43 from 2022. A sleeper pick could be ASICS athlete Cam Levins of Canada, who runs unimaginable weekly milage and finished 5th in the Tokyo Marathon in 2022 in 2:05:36. He was fourth at the world championships in Eugene the previous year. 


The American Men

It was only a few weeks ago that we learned that the U.S. would send three marathoners to this year’s Games. It’s a long story and rather convoluted, but suffice it to say that three Americans will toe the line when the gun goes off on the penultimate morning of these Olympics. 


The squad will be led by Connor Mantz, a BYU grad coached by Ed Eyestone. Mantz, who runs for Nike, has put himself at the top of American marathoning by not only winning the trials in Orlando but finishing as top American in Chicago in October in a time of 2:07:47. He won the esteemed Bolder Boulder 10K this past May. Mantz has the courage and prowess to run with the leaders on the streets of Paris. 


He will be joined by his teammate and fellow BYU grad, Clayton Young, who finished second at the trials in February. Young, who runs for ASICS, served as a missionary for two years after high school, as Mantz did. He was seventh in Chicago in the fall in a time of 2:08:00. 


The third American, U.S. Army runner, Leonard Korir, has represented the U.S. on the big stage before. He ran 2:07:56 in Amsterdam in 2019. He ran the 10,000 at the Rio Games after gaining American citizenship earlier that same year. 


My picks:

Kipchoge

Bekele

Levins


Ben is the Senior Rabbi of Reform Congregation Keneseth Israel of Elkins Park, PA. A cancer survivor, he has run 21 marathons. He holds PRs of 3:15 for the marathon and 1:30 for the half. At 46, he still enjoys pushing himself and combining his running with supporting a variety of causes. Follow him on Instagram: @RabbiBPD or Twitter: @BDinPA 

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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

You forgot Sifan Hassan!!

Anonymous said...

Brigid Kosgei pulled out three weeks ago. Sharon Lokedi was annouced as her replacement.

Anonymous said...

Besides ignoring that Kosgei will not race and forgetting to mention that Tigst Assefa is also the WR holder besides having run that 2:16 for second in London, you are also basically ignore all Europeans runners (apart from Hassan and the Israeli ones). Yet, two of the three medals in Tokyo’s men’s marathon went to Europeans and there are plenty of European runner’s from different countries who have run way faster times than Mantz and co. I know that this page is pretty US-centric, but the marathon races will not be a battle of US vs. East Africa, there are many more players in the game with realistic shots at a medal.

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